EXBOOKIE wants to help the players week 4

[ACE-ACE]

Bankroll $75,000
Inv 2-1 +$1900.00
Action 6-6 -$765.00
Total 8-7-1 +$1135.00

[FONT=open_sansregular]After three weeks of the NFL season, there are still four teams with perfect records against the spread. This group includes defending Super Bowl champion Broncos, upstart Eagles, Vikings and Patriots.[/FONT]
[FONT=open_sansregular]Conversely, just one team remains winless against the spread entering Week 4. The scuffling Bears fell to 0-3 ATS after losing in Dallas 31-17 as a 6.5-point road underdog. Bettors know all streaks come to an end at some point; will this be the week? Chicago is installed as a 3.5-point home 'dawgagainst the Lions this week. That might be worth a look as underdogs in general have done well so far this season.

DOG ARE WINNING MORE THAN FAV THIS YEAR 26-22

points that matter in a game 7 this year out of 48 games. IT ALWAYS IS AROUND 16% over the last 20 years



more to come

ACE

[/FONT]

 

[ACE-ACE]

About points that matter

It isn't the points that matter, its the line and the points that matter frequency:



1129 dogs lose but cover in 6510 games: 17.3% points matter



However it is relative to the line:



LINE % points matter

1.5 2.2

2 2.6

2.5 6.1

3 4.9

3.5 15.0

4 14.3

4.5 19.2

5 14.7

5.5 21.0

6 17.1

6.5 22.6

7 22.6

7.5 30.8

8 31.1

8.5 30.1

9 31.0

9.5 31.4

10 28.8

10.5 37.3

11 28.8

11.5 32.0

12 30.9

12.5 43.5

13 32.8

13.5 32.9

14 28.4

>14 49.2



AVG 17.3 but as you can see it is the line that matters, not the points that matter.

There are more upsets with lower dog lines, so the points that matter are smaller, but when the line goes up, there are fewer upsest, so the points matter a lot more.

 

[ACE-ACE]

So basically on an NFL week with many high dog lines, there will typically be a lot more games where the line matters, but at the same time of there are few big dogs on a given Sunday, the points that matter will be slim. Basic math says this:



Low line upsets 38% points that matter 12% = 50.0

High line upsets 18% points that matter 32% = 50.0

all lines upsets 32.7% points that matter 17.3%= 50.0

 

[ACE-ACE]

There is evidence that the home field advantage may be shrinking:



1989-2014 Home favorite -6.1 2015-present -5.4

1989-2014 Home dog +4.6 2015-present +4.1

1989-2014 All home -2.6 2015-present -2.1



NOTE:



There has been a recent -0.5 erosion in all home team lines. The jury is not conclusive as this covers just 300 total games, vs the previous 6530, or just a sample size of just 4.4%. It is something to watch going forward.

anyone think the same

 

[ACE-ACE]

4 plays this week
two investment
one 411
two action

t-minus 3 hours

 

[Kc6]

Hi Ace! Will you posting the handicap newsletters ever again?

 

[ACE-ACE]

Hi Ace! Will you posting the handicap newsletters ever again?

Football Newsletter Week 5 Recap:
Gaming Today September 27 - October 3
Power Sweep
Power Plays
Marc Lawrence's Playbook
Pointwise
Red Sheet
Winning Points
Powers' Picks
Gold Sheet Extra
Playbook Wise Guys Contest
Inside the Pressbox College
Inside the Pressbox NFL Thursday
Gold Sheet

Football Podcast:
Marc Lawrence's September 28 Podcast with Victor King - Against the Spread

 

[ACE-ACE]

Hi Ace! Will you posting the handicap newsletters ever again?

Guy name buss in the rubber room does it every week. That's this posted in the rubber room....check him out. Link.... http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=971451&page=93&p=11814281#post11814281

 

[Kc6]

Guy name buss in the rubber room does it every week. That's this posted in the rubber room....check him out. Link.... http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=971451&page=93&p=11814281#post11814281

Greatly appreciated.

 

[slapshot]

How about them Bengals Ace

Won a Prime Time game

Tez back D looks better

Just need Tyler back to help the Red Zone offense

 

[ACE-ACE]

How about them Bengals Ace

Won a Prime Time game

Tez back D looks better

Just need Tyler back to help the Red Zone offense

had them in a pool.....but it was against Mia more so....

good job

 

[slapshot]

Good Luck today Ace

Early start with the Jags Colts

 

[ACE-ACE]

IND -2.5................$400 -110

love getting up and eating breakfast watching football.

Go Colt

 

[ACE-ACE]

0-1 to start -$440
next
sea under 40........$400 -105
Det -3..................$2000.00 +100

 

[ACE-ACE]

0-3 -$2860

last game

Dal -2.................$2000.00 -105. 411 play

 

[ACE-ACE]

1-3 on the week -$860.00

on to wk 5

 

[vaidisss008]

good luck nxt week